Dubai’s residential property market often grabs the headlines, but there’s a parallel surge happening in commercial real estate and it’s attracting big-ticket investors.
Morgan Curtin, Head of Commercial at Espace Real Estate, joined Dubai Eye 103.8FM’s Business Breakfast to reveal why office space is in such high demand, how off-plan commercial is emerging as the next frontier, and what this means for investors.
The rise of commercial deals
When Espace Real Estate launched its commercial division just months ago, few expected the segment to take off so quickly. Yet major deals are already being signed.
“We recently sold a full floor in Marina Plaza, a Grade A Emaar tower, for just over AED 56 million,” Morgan explained. “It’s currently rented at a legacy yield of only 2%. But once the new owner resets rents next year, they could achieve 10–12% yields easily.”
The reason? Severe supply-demand imbalance. Stock is scarce, while appetite from businesses and investors keeps rising.
Off-plan opportunities
Traditionally, investors viewed commercial real estate as a second-hand market game. But with available stock nearly exhausted, off-plan is quickly becoming the new strategy.
“Luxury residential brands are entering the commercial space for the first time,” Morgan said. “Business Bay has seen projects sell out within months. Investors need to start looking at commercial off-plan the same way they do with residential, buying for capital appreciation, growth, and higher yields.”
Who’s buying and why
Interestingly, many investors crossing into commercial started out in residential. “We’re seeing our residential clients diversifying into commercial,” Morgan noted. “They’ve recognized that yields are stronger, and they want exposure to Dubai’s growing business ecosystem.”
Demand is backed by fundamentals: over 70,000 new businesses registered in Dubai last year alone, with more expected in 2024. “Predictions are predictions,” Morgan said. “But the fact is, there isn’t enough commercial space to meet demand right now.”
Beyond Business Bay: The move to Dubai South
One solution is emerging: Dubai South and Expo City. With Siemens taking 150,000 sq. ft. of space and the World Trade Center shifting its base, the area is becoming a hub for mega-tenants.
Surprisingly, rents there aren’t drastically cheaper than Downtown or Business Bay. The real draw is availability of large, contiguous office floors, something core city districts simply can’t offer.
Commercial 101: Morgan’s advice for investors
For those eyeing the sector, Morgan shared three key takeaways:
Why commercial is just getting started
While some analysts predict a modest correction in Dubai’s residential market, commercial is a different story. “Supply just isn’t there,” Morgan confirmed. “With more companies choosing Dubai for its tax advantages and business-friendly environment, the appetite for office space will only grow.”
For investors, the message is clear: Dubai’s commercial real estate boom has only just begun, and you can tune into Morgan’s interview here.
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