Reports of a looming oversupply in Dubai property have raised eyebrows among buyers and investors. A recent report suggested that 150,000 new homes set to hit the market by 2026 could trigger a price dip. But Alex Pearson, Associate Director at Espace Real Estate, joined Dubai Eye 103.8FM’s Business Breakfast to argue that the reality, especially for villas and townhouses is very different.
Apartments vs. villas: Two very different stories
“Headlines talk about oversupply, but when you dig deeper, the picture shifts,” Alex explained. “Around 80% of what’s coming to market are apartments, while only 20% are villas or townhouses. With 200,000 to 250,000 new residents relocating to Dubai every year, that villa pipeline looks more like an undersupply than oversupply.”
For apartments, location and quality will matter more than ever, with entire towers being launched on the city’s outskirts. For villas, however, demand continues to outstrip supply, particularly in prime communities.
End users face a decision: wait or buy now?
Many buyers are tempted to wait six to twelve months, hoping for a correction. But Alex cautions against it.
“If you’re an end user and you find the right home, there’s more risk in waiting than in buying now,” he said. “Historically, villa communities have seen 20–25% annual growth. Even if there’s a small correction, it only matters when you sell. Most families stay three to five years before upsizing or relocating.”
The villa squeeze
Waterfront villas remain the most sought-after asset but they’re nearly impossible to find unless you’re prepared to spend AED 20–40 million. For more “accessible” options, branded residences are increasingly popular.
“Arabian Ranches 3, for example, has branded Elie Saab villas coming soon,” Alex shared. “They’re priced at AED 8–10 million, which by Dubai’s current standards is considered reasonable for a luxury family home.”
Buyers who delay risk paying more
The strongest message Alex had for hesitant buyers was clear: delaying could cost more than it saves.
“In 12 months, the same property could cost 20–25% more,” he explained. “Dubai is the strongest real estate market globally right now, and the outlook remains incredibly bright. For families, the real risk is missing out on the right home at today’s price.”
What about market corrections?
Global headlines around war, interest rate hikes, and similar reports fuel buyer caution. But Alex stresses that any future correction in Dubai would look very different from the past.
“If it happens, it’s likely to be modest, around 8–10% like a mature market,” he said. “Not the 20–40% drops we saw years ago.”
Outlook: Stronger demand than supply
Dubai continues to attract new residents, businesses, and investors at record pace. With villas making up a fraction of upcoming supply, undersupply, not oversupply, is the real story.
For buyers, the advice is simple: if you find the right home, move quickly. Waiting may only mean paying more tomorrow.
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