Dubai property transaction volumes may be lower, but beneath the headline figures, the picture is far more varied.
Some communities are recording fewer transactions and softer prices. Others continue to see resilient demand and even higher sales activity than last year.
Speaking on Property Pulse on Dubai Eye’s Business Breakfast, Alan Cuddihy, Operations Director for Dubai Residential Sales at Espace Real Estate, explained why buyers and sellers increasingly need to look beyond citywide data to understand what is actually happening in the market.
Dubai Is Becoming a Community-by-Community Market
Looking at Dubai as a whole, transaction volumes are down. But that does not mean activity is falling everywhere.
The Springs, which Espace uses as a useful indicator of Dubai’s established end-user market, tells a different story. Comparing July and August 2026 with the same period last year, transaction volumes in the community were up 3%.
Elsewhere, the picture can be very different. In Downtown Dubai, transactions over the same period were 25% lower, while prices were down around 10%.
The contrast highlights an increasingly important feature of the current market: performance can vary significantly from one community to another.
The Gap Between Buyers and Sellers
According to Alan, one of the biggest factors holding back transactions is not a lack of demand, but a growing difference between what buyers expect to pay and what sellers are prepared to accept.
After seeing headlines around lower transaction volumes, some buyers are entering the market expecting discounts of 10% or even 20% across Dubai. The reality is more nuanced.
A lower offer may have greater weight in a community where transaction activity and prices have softened. In a location where demand remains strong, the same strategy may be far less successful.
The Springs is a good example. While overall activity increased 3% across July and August, two-bedroom transaction volumes were up 40% in July. For buyers in that particular segment, expectations of significant discounts would therefore be difficult to reconcile with what is happening on the ground.
Sellers Aren’t Necessarily Under Pressure to Sell
Seller behaviour has also changed. For much of the past four or five years, many homeowners were selling one property in order to buy another or upgrade. Today, some owners are taking a longer-term view and are comfortable remaining in their existing homes.
That matters because a property being listed for sale does not necessarily mean its owner is willing or under pressure to accept a substantially lower price.
In parts of the market where buyer and seller expectations remain far apart, transactions may simply take longer to happen as prices gradually realign.
Buyer Demand Is Still There
While transactions may be taking longer to complete, Espace’s internal data points to continued buyer interest.
Comparing the first two weeks of August with the second half of the month, sales leads increased by 43%.
That increase came ahead of September, traditionally one of the periods when Dubai’s property market sees activity accelerate as residents return from summer and families settle back into their routines.
The important distinction is between activity and completed transactions. Buyers are registering, viewing properties and submitting offers, but those offers do not always translate into deals when expectations on price remain too far apart.
Buyers Are Looking at More Options
The buying process itself is changing too.
Rather than concentrating on a single community, buyers are increasingly viewing properties across several areas and comparing the value available within each.
Offers are also becoming more sensitive. Where buyers may previously have moved quickly because of concerns about losing a property, they now have greater confidence to continue their search.
If an offer is rejected without a counteroffer, some buyers are simply moving on to the next property.
For sellers, this makes realistic pricing increasingly important. For buyers, it makes understanding the individual market they are entering just as critical.
The Data Behind the Asking Price
There is no single discount that applies across Dubai.
A buyer looking at a two-bedroom home in The Springs is operating in a different market from someone considering an apartment in Downtown Dubai. Even within the same community, performance can vary by property type, condition and price point.
That makes community-level transaction data increasingly valuable when deciding what to offer.
For buyers, the opportunity in the current market is not simply to make a lower offer. It is to understand where there is genuine room to negotiate and where current demand continues to support pricing.
For sellers, the same principle applies. Pricing against current transactions and buyer behaviour, rather than previous market expectations, is becoming increasingly important.
Dubai’s sales market remains active, but it is also becoming more selective. The headline numbers provide the direction; the individual community tells you what is really happening.
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